12-11-07 : MSCI Index Short setup

If the index can cross 340 down, then its likely to go down further.

If you are aggressive, you may also go for a short if the price rebound to 346
(upper channel line for 15min chart), then down again.

Daily
=====



15min
=====

12-11-07 : Nikkei is still downtrend

Those who hold Nikkei Shorts can cont to do so. Those who have not shorted Nikkei can wait till it rebound to trendline and fall again.

Now its best to just wait.

12-11-07 : Yhoo is going down

Other than the major 7, i do have some time to look at others, thus come out with some extra ideas.

Yhoo is dropping fast. 22.50 may be the support, thus still ahve time for a put.

But the risk:reward is only 1.25, less than 2. Thus may not be worth it.

12-11-07 : My take on various markets

S = short
L = long
U = undecided

(A) US Nasdaq
==============
(1) GOOG - S
(2) BIDU - S
(3) GS - U
(4) BSC - U
(5) RIMM - S
(6) MA - L
(7) AAPL - S

(B) Forex
=========
(1) EUR-USD - L
(2) GBP-USD - L
(3) USD-JPY - S
(4) USD-CHF - S

(C) Commodities
===============
(1) Gold - L
(2) Silver - L
(3) Coffee - L

(D) Indexes
============
(1) QQQQ - U
(2) MSCI -
(3) Hang Seng -
(4) Nikkei -
(5) KLCI -

11-11-07 : MSCI cut @ 360. Loss $600

THe decision to enter MSCI Index Long on 6/11/07 was due to Fibo retracement. Perhaps its not a tool for me.

Long Entry signal
=================


Cut loss pt
===========

12-11-07 : SAPCRES time to sell

H&S. after break neckline at 1.65 level confirmed down.

12-11-07 : TIMECOM at channel base

May go higher after stabilize at the channel base.

12-11-07 : GPLUS - triangle breakout

Wait for triangle breakout.

12-11-07 : MA trend resumes upwards

MA gapped up, and then retrace for a while. But now trend is considered well attached to the trendline, and resumes. May place a 3 mth expiration call.

12-11-07 : BIDU put setup

BIDU put trade setup is possible.

CFD strategy
===========
Price = 343.
target = 300 (43 profit max)
cut = 351 (12 loss max)
risk:reward = 1:3.6
duration = 5 days

Options strategy
================
Option choice = Dec07 $300 put
option price = $15.50
target = $25.50
cut = $10.50
Risk:reward = 1:2

12-11-07 : How far will GOOG retrace?

I expect retracement of GOOG to be till 650 (38.2%) retracement.

If break this support down, then the next Fibo support is at $614 (50% retracement).

12-11-07 : AAPL Put opportunity

Since AAPL drops below box. can bet it will drop till box bottom of 150.

CFD strategy
=============
Price = 165.37
target = 150 (15.37 profit max)
cut = 171 (5.63 loss max)
risk : reward = 1:2.7

Option strategy
=================
option choice = Dec07 Put @150
option price = $4.95
target = $7
cut = $4
Risk:reward = 1:2

Can consider.

10-11-07 : Short Hang Seng Index @ 28871

Can short the hang seng index @ 28871.
target = 27000 (1871 profit max)
cut = 29500 (629 loss max)
risk : reward = 1:3

Can consider.

12-11-07 : ADBE put opportunity

There's a chance ADBE will go down further.

price = 43.2
target = 40 (3.2 profit)
cut = 45.5 (2.3)
risk : reward = 1:1.3

Not sufficient R:R for a trade. Abort.

daily
====

10-11-07 : Silver is also up

I comment on possibility to buy silver which is trending up. Now could have gained a profit of $58 within 1 day.

Here's the chart :

10-11-07 : Gold is up d !

Earlier I planned to buy Gold at 814.60, but did not get the price.
Now its up to 830 d.

Here's the profit I miss :

Gold Daily
===========

10-11-07 : Coffee is up again !

I long coffee earlier, at $120 level, based on trendline support.
Now its $122.05. I set trailing stop at 100 > 0, which is trailing $1.00 behind the
coffee price. Target is still set at $130. We will see if the price can be hit.

Coffee Daily
=============

9-11-07 : MA & BSC trade

I bought a MA Jan08 $210 Call for $9.

I bought a BSC Jan08 $100 Put for $12.

Will buy another one to average down the cost if necessary.

9-11-07 : Another bearish night

GOOG and others cont to free fall. GOOG in fact fell another $22 to $671 now at around 11pm.

Its time to hold most counters till trend is established.

MA and BSC however, can see call & put opportunities due to break of boxes.

MA break box up, and despite bearish sentiment overall, remains above the box.

MA daily
========


BSC breaks 100 down, and remains down for now. We may go for BSC put after it has rebound to 100 level, and fall again.

BSC daily
=========

9-11-07 : USDCHF is falling too fast

No idea whats wrong with US, but share prices are falling, currency is falling. Hmm... USDCHF is now falling real fast. Those who have shorted it is very profitable now. THose who have not shorted it, i dont recommend doing so, as we dont know when will rebound happen, which will be around the corner. Just consider this an opportunity missed.


daily
=====

8-11-07 : The falling knife - GOOG

Retracement was due for GOOG and BIDU as i mentioned earlier, and so they were. They dropped like falling knives.

If you want to catch a falling knife, when is the right time to catch it so that you are not badly hurted? Can technical be used to catch a falling price, and profit from the rebound which will come for sure after the sharp fall of $40 per night?

Yes. Daily chart is not much of help in catching the bottom of the fall, but 15min chart proves to be useful.

Towards the bottom, 3 signals appear :

(1) Break downtrend line for 15min chart
(2) MACD cross up again at -30, extreme negative value
(3) strong support at 680, with 2 high lower tail supports, and a tweezer bottom.

At that price, option is not at its lowest ($8.10), but at least around a cheap price range of $9-$10.

The option has fallen hard, which original price was $33 when opened. And its only 6 more days left to expire ($710 Nov07 call).

If you have caught the rebound successfully, then thats your prize :

Buy @ $10
Sell @ $13.50
Profit = $3.50
duration = 1hr 45mins (from 1.30am to 3.15am).

daily
------


15min
-----

8-11-07 : RIMM setup still valid.

The option range last nite was from 11-14. THus buying around $12 is possible. Also, the price close at $12.40, thus a ready profit.

But 130 level base is not stable, and thus will see tonite's performance first.
Hopefully it will retrace to 130 level, then up again.

daily
=====


15min
=====

8-11-07 : GOOG is not safe yet for call

As BIDU retraced, GOOG retraced too, to $725 level.

I would rather wait for retracement all the way to $710 area. But if it rebound strongly from the inner trendline, then its valid for a call too.

daily
=====


15min
======

8-11-07 : BIDU is going for retracement

As I said, BIDU needs a retracement. FC said its time to go in. I said its time for retracement. Guess I'm right this time.

$390 is a better pt to enter a call, not $410, which seems to be the resistance now.
But who knows? $390 outer trendline support may be broken too. We will see.

daily
=====



15min
======

7-11-07 : Wifi at MMU

hmm.. here also got. Seems i really can online anywhere in KL.

Just visiting my sis today. At MMU Campus at cyberjaya.

Its KLIA express to reach Cyberjaya bus station. and Bus 429 to reach here. tata !

7-11-07:Wifi inside bus 429

on the wa to mmu. this blog is done in the bus to MMU. Maxis is great !

7-11-07:Wifi inside KLIA Express

This blog is done inside KLIA express, on my way to visit my sis in cyberjaya.

Maxis Broadband. How convenient. = )

7-11-07 : GOOG wait for retracement too

More towards the upper trendline now. So wait for retracement first. $750 may be reached tonite, then may experience some strong pullback. Wait.

7-11-07 : BIDU needs retracement

FC said BIDU can go for call last nite. Last nite was down big. Retracement basically,
but it drop below inner trendline. Wait for retracement to outer trendline la.
If not, then go back up to inner trendline then call la !!

daily
=====


15min
=====

7-11-07 : RIMM trade is ok tonite

RIMM is also folloing along in channel. No big spike like GOOG or BIDU. But may prove to be a consistent uptrend counter.

Daily
=====


15min chart
==========


Option Price : $12.95 (yesterday closing)
Buy around $12 or when $130 support is stablized.

Take profit : $140
Cut loss : $128

7-11-07 : AAPL setup tonite

AAPL has good support from lower channel line, and now going to move higher. 15min chart suggests it already broken 190 up, and is ready to go for 200. Thus we will enter a call tonite.

daily chart
===========


15min chart
===========

Trade setup :
Wait for price to retrace back to 190, then up again with 1 big white cdl or 2 small white cdl using 5min chart.

If no retracement, dont go for call. if gap, dont call also.

AAPL Dec07 $190 Call
---------------------
2 days Option price range : $8.25 - $11.25 ($3 range)
Thus we should go in at around $9-$10 range price.

6-11-07 : GOOG idea by FC Lim

FC suggested me to go for a call last nite for GOOG. He also suggested $230 Nov07 Call. Lets see how the call do if I follow his advice :

Open : $20
Lowest : $16.
After reversal : $18
Consolidation : $19
Highest : $23
Closing : $23

Potential profit : $7 (max)

Anyway, I didnt go into the trade. Focus on GS instead. hehe.

6-11-07 : GS trade

2 GS trade made tonite. Total profit = $100. Each $0.50 profit.

Here is my trade details :

Trade 1 - GS 230 Dec Call
=============================
Buy @ $12
Sold @ 12.50
duration = 10mins
Reason = price break upper channel with a large white cdl (with vol spike).

Buy pt
------


Sold pt
-------


Trade 2 - GS 230 Dec Call
=============================
Buy @ 13
sold @ 13.50
duration = 30mins
reason = Share price already stablelized at 220++.

6-11-07 : Long Gold

Gold is on a steep trendline up. So I long Gold.
Queue to buy : 814.60
Stop loss : 813.50
Take profit : 817.00
Risk:Reward = 1.5 : 2.4
Duration = 10 days

6-11-07 : Silver made year high

Silver has steadily trend up since Aug, broke the channel up,
and cont to trend up till it broke this year's high.

May worth a long position.

6-11-07 : EUR-USD opportunity

The trend is still up. wait for retracement, then long it. Should be ok.

6-11-07 : Remember Iretex !

A $25,000 mistake. That is Iretex. Reason : Trust my remisier. Never see chart first.

6-11-07 : Bank Index at all time low

US Bank Sector Index has droppped to all time high of 410 to now 310.

With such a low point, one wonders if the bank stocks will cont to go down, particularly fundamentally strong counters like BSC, GS and JPM.

THus have to be more careful when shorting these counters.

6-11-07 : My EUR-USD trade done

5-11-07
========
Short EUR-USD @ 1.4501
Close @ 1.4478
Profit = 23pips * $10 = $230
Duration = 1 day

6-11-07 : Short GBP-USD pair

GBP - USD Short Trade
=======================
Price now : 2.0812
target : 2.0650
cut loss : 2.0900
risk : reward = 88:162 = 1:1.84
duration : 20 days

6-11-07 : Long Coffee @ 120

Long Coffee Price : 120
Take profit : 130
Cut loss : 117
Risk : Reward = 3:10
Reason to long : retrace back to trendline and up again.

6-11-07 : Long MSCI Index

Taiwan MSCI index has experienced Fibo retracement. Now its up again.
Thus long the index based on Fibo.

Long price : 366
Cut Loss : 360
Take profit : 375
Risk : Reward = 6:15
Duration : 10 days

6-11-07 : Short Russell 2000 Index

Short Price : $792
Cut loss : $800
Take Profit : $770
Risk : Reward = 8:22 = 4:11
Duration : 10 days
Reason : Broke channel down

5-11-07 : GS and BSC trade

I plan to enter a call for GS when it rebound from trendline. I plan to enter a call for BSC when it reach $100 because I believe its a strong support.