31-10-07 : Tonite's trading plan

These are the more priority counters with better setup :

(1) GS call
(2) AAPL call
(3) BSC put
(4) RIMM call

30-10-07 : BIDU is going higher

The ascending triangle forms almost same time as GOOG and AAPL. It gapped up,and never retraced back to 340, or to trendline. Thus wait first.

daily
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15min
=====

30-10-07 : GRMN's triple top pays off

if you have listened to my 29-10-07 advice to sell ur call and buy put,
you would be profitable now.

price did form another top (made it quadriple top), then tank to 120 from 126 box top area.
MACD 15min cross 0 down, thus may even break 15min trendline to 120. Thus its best to hang on first.

daily
====


15min
=====

30-10-07 : BSC is really the dog

29-10-07 I expect BSC to rebound up strongly after broken trendline up. But it just went back down into the same box, and MACD sinks below 0. thus outlook is back to bearish for now.

Luckily, no call signal is triggered, as after 11am, it never went up above 115 again.

daily
=====


15min
=====

30-10-07 : AAPL wait for breakout?

29-10-07 i said wait for breakout of level, and it did happen, and retraced back. ascending triangle, it closely resembles GOOG price pattern.

Most likely it will break 168 again tonite, and lets Call !!

daily
====


15min
======

30-10-07 : RIMM rest on trendline, ready to go

I said in 29-10-07 call if above 120, and put if below 117.Its 121 now, resting on trendline support. thus last nite is not appropriate to enter call. A good time to enter call tonite, if it goes up from the trendline support.

daily
======


15min
======

30-10-07 : MA's earning effect is uncertain

Its best to hold, as per last advice on 29-10-07. The chart is not strongly bullish, but it does have bullish bias. If result is good tonite, may well go to 170.

Wait for the catalyst to be confirmed first.15min MACD not yet cross 0 up, thus no signal to enter Call for now. Wait.

daily chart
==========


15min chart
===========

30-10-07 : GS did retraced

On 29-10-07 i said wait for GS to retrace to 15min trendline first.

without retracement, price is 246. After retracement its 240. Saved $6 for
waiting for retracement. Well done.

Now we are ready to buy Call should GS move higher than 241 tonite.

daily chart
===========


15min chart
===========

30-10-07 : GOOG trade was good

On 29-10-07 i mentioned if break 678 up then call.
It did, and its 700. Up $22. Wow.

15min chart
===========


now i would really wait for the price to retrace to 15min trendline. 700 can be a strong resistance for now.

29-10-07 : BIDU trade

ascending triangle :
Breakout 351 after retracement call.
Break triangle down $344 put.

29-10-07 : GRMN trade

Seems to form double top. 15min chart forms H&S.
Break below 116 to put.

Call holder
==========
sell your call now

Put entry pt
=============
Break below 116. Cut loss at 118. Take profit at 110.

Daily chart
==============


15min chart
=============

29-10-07 : BSC trade

BSC already broken 15min downtrendline. Now its box up.

Put holder
=========
Sell your BSC put now

Call holder
============
Hold on till 120 then sell.

Call Entry pt
===========
Open around 115-117 area. Bull market. Enter call here.

Put entry pt
===========
Below 110 enter put.

15min chart
==============

29-10-07 : AAPL trade

Now in channel box 180-188.

Wait for breakout.

29-10-07 : MA trade

Gap up in view of earning 2 days later on 31/10/07.

May well go to 170.

Call holder
==========
Hold on as trendline is intact.

Call entry
============
If white cdl bullish up the trendline, then call. if not wait.

29-10-07 : RIMM trade

uptrend still intact.

If go higher tonite with strong white its ERF#1.

Call holder
============
can still hold on as trendline intact.

But macd 15min already below 0. beware of retracement tonite.

Entry pt
========
Call at 210
Put at 117

Daily
=====


15min chart
==========

29-10-07 : GOOG trade

Into a small channel now. 660-678 box.
Ascending triangle.

Call holder
=============
Break below 15min trendline sell.

Call/Put entry pt
===================
above 678 = call
below 670 = put

26-10-07 : GS trade tonite

GS gap up. resistance is $5 away at 240. Now still at 235.

Call holder
==============
Will hold one until the trendline for 15min (also same as 5min) is broken).
Sell when reach $240.

Call entry pt
==============
wait for retrace to trendline, then up again with a strong white cdl for ERF#1.

28-10-07 : A look at GOOG trendline

Let's look at GOOG again for this whole year. Its not hard to notice,
generally the chart includes 2 major trendlines, and 1 H&S inverted pattern (bullish), just before the 2nd and longer trendline.




We are still at the midst of the 2nd trendline. However, notice that from the breakout point, price has risen by $160 (520 - 680).

The channel before the breakout is a box of 440-520 ($80). Thus price has risen twice the box range. Its possible there's a retracement at this point. But its not confirmed until the trendline is broken.

Back to 18-9-07 : Where GOOG broke out

The GOOG trend is really one of extra ordinary bullish one. Players who swing trade by the trendline would have earned up to $100 by now.

This is an analysis of where is the practical entry and exit point to time this trade. Its a hypothetical situation, not an actual trade.

If enter at 18/9/07 break out of Inverted H&S pattern, hold till now (trenline still intact) would have earned $11,700, assuming the option was $20 to buy. Now its $137 (Nov 540 Call, assumed that time buy 2 mths in advance, 1 strike OTM when share price was $533).

Thus we can safely say, playing trend is profitable in long run, than day trade, and less stressful.

26-10-07 : Fib on GS

FIBO retracement does apply on GS.

Daily chart @ 26-10-07
=========================

26-10-07 : Trade Summary

Tonite i look at the market from 12.30am onwards.

Notice a few stocks have break out, thus buy with tight profit margin, as most stocks have moved quite near their resistance.

Summary of my trades tonite :

GS Dec07 $230 call : $1.20
GOOG Nov07 670 call : $1
BSC Nov07 $120 call : $0.50
Total profits @ 26-10-07 : $2.70

26-10-07 : AAPL trade (open position)

MA dec07 $160 call
bought @ $11
closing @ $11
paper loss = $0
reason for purchase : break box up

daily chart
============


15min chart
=============

26-10-07 : MA trade (open position)

MA Dec07 $160 Call
Bought @ 11.50
Closing @ 11.00
Paper loss = -$0.50
Reason for the purchase : Break box up

Daily chart
============


15min chart
============

26-10-07 : GS trade 2

GS Dec07 230 call
Bought @ 17.80
Sold @ 18.50 (highest of the day)
Profit : 0.70
duration : 40mins

5min chart
=============

26-10-07 : GOOG trade

GOOG Nov-07 670 call
bought @ 19.40
sold @ 20.40
profit = $1
duration = 10min

Daily chart
==========


15min chart
===========

26-10-07 : BSC trade

BSC Dec07 $120 Call
Bought @ 10
Sold @ 10.50
profit : 0.50
duration : 30mins

Daily chart
===========



15min chart
===============

26-10-07 : GS trade

GS Dec07 230 call
Bought @ 16
sold @ 16.50
profit = 0.50
duration = 10mins

Daily chart
==============


15min chart
==============

24-10-07 : GOOG trades

Trade 1&2 : GOOG calls
-----------------------


Winning trades become losing trades. Total loss = $1.40.

Trade 3 : GOOG Call
--------------------

Basis for entry :

Daily chart
-----------


15min chart
-------------


5min chart
------------


The trade is done in 3 mins. Sold for $1 profit.

Exit chart (5min)
-----------


Thus tonite's GOOG call trades summary :
Trade 1 : -0.40
Trade 2 : -1.00
Trade 3 : +1.00

Total loss = -$0.40

24-10-07 : The sundry shop man

There's this small room which is a sundry shop at level 9 of Menara Haw Par. This indian middle age man runs this shop alone. He seems quite a relax and easy going man. Not married, no children. Travel extensively. To where? Places like the Venetians, hong kong, to enjoy the casino, the culture, the atmosphere. Generally, this man knows how to enjoy life ..

Wait? wasnt him just the sundry shop owner? How can he afford to go that type of place often?

The surprise is, it turns out he's a US commodity trader, for the past 10 yrs. Must have accumulated some wealth. Then open a small kedai runcit, and pass time. Wow. he's done what i want to do.

He is a day trader, only trades once a week. How nice. And btw, he opens his shop at 9am, close at 3pm everyday.

What a life.

24-10-07 : MA put trade

MA broke down below 150, thus presents an opportunity to put.

Daily chart :


15min chart :


5min chart :


Note that 146 may be a support at 5min chart. Thus may want to wait below 146 to put. If gap up tonite, and fall back again below 150, then can put immediately with target at 146.

24-10-07 : GS Call tonite

Propose a call tonite in view of GS's stubbornness of not to go down.
15min chart forms an inverted H&S, with 223.20 as the neckline, if break up, will go to $228 soon.



Use my call checklist, ensure all criterias are met, then go in for a good GS call !

However, I must say this is a more risky trade, since daily chart is still bearish, with MACD cross down, and price fall below MA20. So beware ! Enter at your own risk.

Summary of my call / put strategy

What are the things most important to my decision making of whether to enter a trade or not ? These are the most crucial factors :

(1) Trendline - daily, 15min
(2) Breakout ( i call box up or box down based on Darvas's Box Theory)
(3) MACD (5,35,5) - daily, 15min, 5min must all sync in 1 direction
(4) MA20 cross MA50 for Daily & 15min charts
(5) Price above or below MA20 for 5min chart
(6) Extreme price swing in 1 night
(7) Candlestick patterns -esp. Bull/Bearish engulfing, Doji, head & shoulder, double top & bottom

I do look at Bollinger band occassionally to look for outliers that can cause an immediate pullback or rebound (but rarely). I do look at volume sometimes to gauge the strength of the breakout (rarely also).

I dont look at news (except earning announcement date), i dont care about other things. I only look at 7 counters permanently now, and i dont care about the rest of Nasdaq or NYSE stocks (unless my friends told me to take a look at).

These are the only 7 counters I look at everyday :

(1) GOOG
(2) GS
(3) BSC
(4) BIDU
(5) AAPL
(6) MA
(7) RIMM

They are all highly volatile stocks, thus you may say I trade volatility essentially.

I guess there's nothing much to say about my strategy any more.

My Call & Put Entry Strategy

This is the checklist i need to tick before enter a call or put trade. Its no secret. All the criterias are plain simple, even a child can do it. All it takes is stick to this plan, and there's 60% chance the trade will turn out well.

======================
Call Checklist
=======================
Straight Call

Date :
Trade No :

Entry point checklist

Market Bullish
Daily trend up
Daily MACD Cross 0 up
Daily MA20X50 cross up
15min MACD cross 0 up
15min MA20X50 cross up
5min MACD cross 0 up
Price above 5min MA20
Break box up
Touch daily trendline
Rebound from daily trendline

Option chosen

Option
Strike
Premium
Intrinsic Value
Time Value
Highest price of the day
Lowest price of the day

Exit Point Checklist

No of days / mins hold
Sold price
Net profit / loss
Net actual profit %

=================
End of checklist
===================

As you can see, my exit strategy is based on my own discretion. No hard and fast rule. Mainly $0.50 profit / $1.00 / $1.50 / $2.00 profit based on my opinion on the strength of the move in very short term.

I usually just queued to sell at a fixed $0.50 interval price after i buy an option.
My cut loss point is $1 for high volatility stock like GOOG, BIDU, GS. $0.50 for less volatile stocks like AAPL, MA, RIMM.


======================
Put Checklist
=======================

Straight Put

Date :
Trade No :

Entry point checklist

Market Bearish
Daily trend down or uptrend met a major resistance pt
Daily MACD Cross 0 down
Daily MA20X50 cross down
15min MACD cross 0 down
15min MA20X50 cross down
5min MACD cross 0 down
Price below 5min MA20
Break box down
Touch daily trendline
Fall from daily trendline

Option chosen

Option
Strike
Premium
Intrinsic Value
Time Value
Highest price of the day
Lowest price of the day

Exit Point Checklist

No of days / mins hold
Sold price
Net profit / loss
Net actual profit %

=================
End of checklist
===================

23-10-07 : GOOG call trade turns out ok

I bought a GOOG call Nov07 $670 strike (yes, that one again) on 22-10-07 before market closed. Option price is closing price = $12.00.

I queued to sell at $13.00. But upon seeing the market is bullish, and GOOG is already up $10 before market open, I cancelled the sell order, and planned to sell upon market open, at market bid price.

Market opened at $15.80. It went up to $16.00 where I sold my option @ $16.00. Profit is $4.00. Nice. Option price retraced to $15.00, before it went up to $19.20.
I failed to catch this move. Felt like going in, but no indicators to support, thus did not go in.

Also, at $670 area around 10pm, where option price is at highest, and hence put option is at lowest around $10 area, i intend to go for a put for the expected coming retracement, but did not go in either. Again, lack of indicators to support.

But i did it at paper trading, and it went well. Got 1 put @ 10.70. Got another put @ $9.70. Thus averaged down to $10.20 for 2 contracts of Nov07 $650 Put.

Sold @ $11.20 for both puts later, thus $2 virtual profit. Since its a strongly bullish night, I didnt go for the put.

Below is the Call trade :



This is the put trade :

22-10-07 : GS Put trade turns out ok

The trade is summarized as below. Bought before market closed on Fri, sold
when market opened by Mon. Autosell order actually, and i was not around.



Reason for the trade : Broken 220 support down.
Share price when option bought : $218
Price target : $215 (which is reached)

Thus $3 down in share price results in option price up $2 actually to $12.90. But i queued to sell at $11.90, thus only $1 profit for me.

19-10-07 : GS put trade

GS broke trendline down earlier, and all long positions have been cleared.

We went for a short position in the form of put at $220 Nov07 Strike. The price is $10.90. 1 contract.

Daily chart
--------------



15min chart
------------


5min chart
----------


Reason to put : Break 220 support with long black bar

Take profit pt : 210

Loss profit pt : 221

Holding period : 3 days