22-11-07 : Daily research

Long :
EUR-USD, Oil, Gold

Short :
GS, BA, USD-JPY, USD-CHF, Nikkei, Heng Seng

20-11-07 : RIMM call tonite

RIMM may go for a call, provided its bullish tonite.

$100 is strong support. $108 is a bit high, may want to wait for a bit of retracement.

IOICORP according to techical analysis, it seems like down trend (trend ine) but the company fundamental is very strong. So will u buy IOICORP now?

19-11-07 : GS may be going down

GS touch the trendline that it has broken recently and now reverse down.

Possible to gain support at 200.

19-11-07 : Down Jones

How to trade the Dows?

using channel trading, 30mins chart.

30mins chart
=============


daily with MACD
==============


daily with S/R
================

19-11-07 : AAPL wait for trendline down

Can still play AAPL, much like RIMM and GOOG, using Channel trading way. If drop after it fail to break channel up, then go for a short position in CFD.

19-11-07 : GS short term setup

As i said, GS's trend strength is weak now, and anytime it can reverse anywhere.

Its not safe for a swing or position. For day trade however, there's still a way.

Using 15min, we can establish a temp channel, and using channel trading technique
(much like the box theory, modified by myself), we can still profit from
the short term move.


If its above 228, we go for call. If it drop below from upper trendline, we go for put.

Call
----
price = 228
target = 238($10)
cut = 226($2)
risk:reward = 1:5

Put
---
price = 224
target = 216($8)
cut = $226($2)
risk:reward = 1:4

Its still possible to profit from GS using this setup.

GS 15min chart with channel
============================

19-11-07 : GS's trending strength

ADX is used to measure a trend's strength. If its above 20 and rising, the trend is established in 1 direction and confirmed. If its less than 20, or droppping, means the trend is slowing down, or reversing.

In the case of GS, there's 2 periods the trend is strongest. But now its back to 20,
indicating the market is uncertaing where GS will go from here. We need to wait and see.

GS daily with ADX
===================


GS daily with MACD
=================

19-11-07 : RIMM's dilemma

This is one typical example of indicator conflicts.

MACD suggest put.
MA20X50 suggest put.
Bollinger suggest call.
Box theory suggest call.
Channel trading suggest wait for put.

We will see which indicators prevail.

:)

19-11-07 : RIMM needs to wait for put

(1) Bollinger band shows the recent cdls are too far low.
(2) $100 level is a strong support.

I dont advocate put. How about call? Nono. No confirmation for reversal.
Bullish harami (a small white inside a big red cdl) is not a strong confirmation enough to convince me.

30mins chart suggested RIMM is in the verge of breaking up, but still contained within the box (channel).

However, Daily MACD already drop below 0, and Price is just below MA50. Can go for a hot, wet blanket Put (from Toni Turner's strategy setup).

Wait for a drop from the upper channel line for a put. If not, wait.

daily chart with Bollinger Band
===============================




daily chart with MACD, MA20X50
==============================


30min chart
===========

19-11-07 : GOOG may reverse up, may not

How to predict the next move of GOOG ?

I choose to use 30 days 30mins chart, and create a channel to fit in all downtrend
prices of GOOG so far.

It fits, so far. However, GOOG may want to break the channel out. If it does, then its reversal to the upside. Is this method accurate? We will see.

GOOG 30days 30mins chart
=========================

16-11-07 : Long Gold

I long Gold due to trendline support.

Price entered : 790.65
Cut : 788.65
Profit : 794.65
risk : reward = 1:2
Duration = 10 days

14-11-07 : My trades tonite

BIDU Nov 360 call 9.0 -> 9.8 (+0.80)

BIDU 350 Dec call 41.1 -> 42.2 (+1.10)

GOOG 660 Dec call 32.4 -> 33.1 (+0.70)

MA dec 190 call 11.50 -> 10.70(-0.80)

BIDU
====



GOOG
=====


MA
===

14-11-07 : Long Coffee

Long Coffee @ $122.95.
Profit @ 130
Cut @ 118
Risk:reward = 1:2
Duration = 20 days

Alternative Exit method : Go by 15min channel
daily
=====


15min
====

14-11-07 : MA trade tonite

If the uptrend continue tonite with bullish sentiment, then its time to go for a call in MA, RIMM or AAPL. among the 3, MA has higher chances of going up.

MA daily
========


MA 15min
========

14-11-07 : GS trade tonite

GS may be considered reversed back to uptrend. Its already 3rd day on the
15min uptrend channel.

May go in for a call if the price stays within the channel.

Daily
=====


15min
=====

14-11-07 : Compare GOOG diff expiration options

Remember that just 2 nights ago on Mon, the Nov $650 put went from 5.80 to as high as 28.10, before closing at 23.50. That rush in price is equally matched last nite when it gapped down to 15.70 when opened, and fell all the way to 5.20 upon closing.

With just 3 days to expiration, I think its game over for this product called "Nov07 $650 Put". Thats the nature of the expiration month option. Up fast, and down faster.
Those without a strong heart dont play this type of options.

Dec07 $650 Put on the other hand, display a less volatile behavior.
It went from 24 to 43 ($19 rise (79% rise)).
Compared this with Nov put ($22.30 rise (384% rise)).

When Up :
Dec put : +$19 (+79%)
Nov put : +$22.30 (+384%).
Diff in $$ = $3.30

Jan put : +$20 (+66%) ($30 to $50)
Diff in $$ = $2.30

When down?
Dec put : -$16 (-37%)
Nov put : -$23 (-82%).
Diff in $$ = $7

Jan put : -$14 (-28%)
Diff in $$ = $9

So,
If u r right, u gain about $3.50 more with Nov put (compared with Dec)
If u r wrong, u lose $7 more with Nov put (compared with dec).

So if u r right, Nov option rewards u much more. If u r wrong, Dec option will save your ass.

So r u offensive player? or Defensive player?
In dollar value, its safer to play Dec option (1 mth expiration).

But again, if u dont have time to monitor, Max u can lose for the option is ur total option costs.

Max u can lose for Nov option is $5.80.
Max u can lose for Dec option is $23.
Max u can lose for Jan option is $30.


But its never wise to NOT watch the market. So, i guess its still better to play 1 mth expiration at least.

For me? I will choose Dec07 option based on optimum risk:reward perspective.

So, this is the conclusion of FC's point of view (always get expiration month option) vs my point of view (always get 1mth expiration option)

Buying Nov option can be argued this way :

If u gain u can gain $23 (384%). if u lose u can only lose $5.80.

Buying Dec option can be argued this way :
If u gain u can gain $3.50 less than Nov option.
If u lose u can lose $7 less than Nov option.
Thus risk of getting Dec07 option is half of that of Nov07 option.

So, which side are you at ?

Nov07 $650 Put (4 days towards expiration)
==========================================


Dec07 $650 Put (29 days towards expiration)
==========================================


Jan08 $650 Put (49 days towards expiration)
==========================================

13-11-07 : GOOG can put if still downtrend

If GOOG didnt break 15min channel up, and still cont downtrend, a put is ok.



15min
=====

13-11-07 : RIMM needs to wait for put

Only re-enter put for RIMM after it fall below 100.

daily
=====



15min
=====

13-11-07 : My take on indices

(1)Nasdaq 100 - downtrend



(2)FTSE - Downtrend. Unless channel trendline broken up

daily
=====


15min
======


(3)Nikkei - downtrend.



(4)Hang Seng - downtrend until break 15min channel up


(5)MSCI - downtrend assume unless reverse

13-11-07 : Coffee & Gold still uptrend

Coffee still uptrend. Support at 120.



Gold still uptrend. Support at 800.

13-11-07 : Currencies all need retracement. Hold.

All 4 majors will need retracement. Not the time to enter now. Wait.

EUR-USD
======


GBP-USD
======


USD-CHF
========


USD-JPY
=======

13-11-07 : AAPL need to wait

AAPL has dropped to 150, its previous support. Thus need to wait and see if this support can hold. 15min chart shows the price is still at the channel, but at lower end of the trendline. Need to see if it will break trendline, or go down further before going for a put.

Daily
=====



15min
=====

13-11-07 : GOOG trade setup last nite discussion

Last night sees GOOG Nov07 $650 Put goes from $5.80 lowest to $28.10 highest. It closed at $23.30.

There's 2 ways to enter a put on last nite's 15min chart.

Way 1 : Support breakdown at $656 level (buy put @ $12)
========================================


Way 2 : Triangle breakout at $660 level (buy put @ $8, thus cheaper)
========================================


However, the Nov07 650 put option chart only sees breakout of the option price range at $656 support breakdown, thus way 1 is more achievable.

12-11-07 : My AAPL trades tonite

I earned total $195.40 from AAPL.

Trade 1
=======
Buy @ 11
Sold @ 12
Profit = $96
duration = 5mins

Buy pt
=====


sold pt
======


Trade 2
------
Buy @ 12.50
Sold @ 13.50
profit = $96
duration = 10mins

Buy & Sold pt
=============