31-12-07 : Bullish on MA and GOOG

Both MA and GOOG have good MA20 and box/ channel support for daily chart. But have 15min MACD cross 0 down. a bit disturbing.

Thus I will wait to long them, provided their 15min MACD cross 0 up again.

GOOG daily chart
===============


MA daily chart
==============

31-12-07 : Last day of the month

I met up with Earnest. he's stil doing great. use a good system software to trade. and its seems ok.

He wants me to help him promote his software in pg side. i will, if its good.
He said the software gives excellent entry and exit signals.
=)

last day of the mth. tonite do what ? OMG. no plan. my gf is going to kill me.

30-12-07 : No Long confirmation signal for me !

Dhillon said long wallstreet. its such a great deal for me coz its his first trade alert.

I cant see any long signal. The most i see is A triangle formation.

Yes, i do see that MA200 now act as good support, and MA20 just cross MA50 up.
Perhaps thats his signal.

13336 is his price to long. 13400 is my price to long. I prefer to see price break out of my down channel, and MACD break above 0 for 15min chart as confirmation.

ok.. long then. :)

Long @ 13400
cut @ 13300 ($100)
Profit @ 13600 ($200)
r:r = 1:2
duration = 5 days

daily chart with MA20,50,200
=============================


15min chart
===========

30-12-07 : Most Counters' "a bit" bearish.

A bit bearish = 15min MACD below 0.

GOOG, BIDU, AAPL, RIMM, MA, GS, BSC. Dow Jones Index (DJI).
So all my counters' MACD are below 0.

Why "a bit"? and not "very bearish"?

Because most prices are still above their trendline / MA20 supports.

A very uncertain market for me. But Dhillon said LONG Wallstreet !
Means its going to go up next week.

He is a genius.

28-12-07 : MA trade is done !

on 24/12/07 i suggested long MA at 208 or 213. It didnt go to 213. instead it gapped down to 208. Thus if u have got the share at 208,
then cut loss = 206. take profit = 212.
the trade only took 1 day to be done. Sold at 212, and thus $4 profit (under the risk of $2).

15min chart
===========

28-12-07 : GOOG was up too

Longing GOOG at 680 area is a good idea. But at 24/12 when I suggested it, it has passed above the channel and support,and never look back. Thus its not possible to get that price after 24/12/07.

It did reach 700. then 710 in 2 days (didnt i tell u GOOG move fast? rats !).

15min chart
============

28-12-07 - BIDU long was right !!

BIDU already reached $400 in 2 days time.

On 24/12/07, I wrote in my blog that BIDU long is a good trade. I suggested to wait for retracement till 375 area. Well it was never reached. The lowest it went was $377.

Thus I never get the stock. It went to $400 in 2 days, faster than what i expected, but the right target non the less. It will go to $450 soon.

15min chart
=============

24-12-07 : BSC is bearish

indicators :

Daily chart
============
(1) Box - bearish
(2) Channel - bearish
(3) MA20,50,200 - bearish
(4) MACD - bearish
(5) OBV - bearish
(6) Bollinger - Bullish (tails are below Bollinger band)

15min chart
============
(1) channel - bearish (down channel)
(2) MACD - bearish (below 0)

Will short BSC when drop below 89. But since Bollinger shows price tails outside band, may rebound. short with caution.

daily
=====



15min
====

24-12-07 : BIDU long anyone? For the dare devil only !!

If u consider trading GOOG crazy, then BIDU is insane.

Even with the most conservative strategy, cut loss point is $12 away. The price just move too fast.

BIDU currently looks good for a long, based on good box, channel and MA20,50 support.
It may break $400 soon, and will reach $450 in no time.

But need to wait for some retracement to 370-5 area.

Below are the charts to support a long position.

daily with channel & box
========================



daily with MA20,50
==================


15min with MACD
=============

24-12-07 : The aggressive strategy for GOOG

GOOG move fast. Its not for the faint hearted. We will attempt to capture profit in this fast moving stock this time.

The indicators are as below :

Daily chart
==========
(1) Candles - neutral (a spinning top after 2 white)
(2) Box - bullish (650-750 box, now is 700, at mid point, but uptrend)
(3) Channel - bullish
(4) OBV - bullish (uptrend)
(5) MACD - neutral
(6) Bollinger - Bullish

15min chart
==========
Channel - bearish
MACD - bearish

15min chart indicates that current price 695 is not a good price to long.
We need to wait for retracement.

strategy
========
At 12am tonite :
Long at 682 if retrace to 680 level.
Long at 702 if break 700 up.

daily with channel
=================


15min
====

24-12-07 : MA is bullish

MA indicators are as below :

Daily chart
===========
(1) Box = Bullish (200 box btm support)
(2) Channel = bullish (ERF#1 at channel btm)
(3) MA20,50,200 = Bullish (MA20 as support)
(4) Bollinger = Bullish (mid point as support, uptrend)
(5) OBV = Bullish (uptrend)
(6) MACD = Neutral (2 line is uptrend, Hist is bearish)
(7) Candles = Bullish (Cup with a handle)

15min chart
===========
(7) Cdl = bullish (ascending triangle)
(8) MACD = bullish (above 0)

Strategy
=======
Plan A - Enter at 208. Cut at 206. Profit at 224. R:R = 1:8
If tonite at 12am, the price retrace to 208, use Plan A.

Plan B - Enter at 213. Cut at 209. Profit at 223. R:R = 1:2.5
If tonite at 12am, the price already break 213, use Plan B.

30min chart
===========

24-12-07 : RIMM for now

For now, we need to wait.

Daily & 15min both showed its not safe to long now. Need to wait for break 125 up.

daily
=====


15min
=====

24-12-07 : Future of RIMM after earning gap up (long term)

RIMM's $100 holds, and after earning it gaps to $120. Now at $118 area, we try to predict its future direction.

On the longer term, I expect RIMM price to reach $170 by May 2008. This analysis is done with help of Encyclopedia of Chart Pattern book (i shall refer to it as EOCP next time).

As you guys may have known I hold on to EOCP as bible of chart, i naturally refer to it to predict direction of stocks.

Daily chart with Box
====================

24-12-07 : GS's direction

Diamond was formed. Was broken down. $200 support was reached. As predicted. Diamond pattern is no longer useful.

Whats next ?

I look at each elements of daily chart, and try to form a generalized conclusion :
Daily chart :
(1) Candles - bearish
(2) Box - Bullish
(3) MA20,50,200 - Bearish
(4) MACD - Bearish
(5) Vol - Bullish

15min Chart :
(1) Box - Bearish
(2) MACD - Bearish

6 bearish and 2 bullish signs. Not good enough to confirm a down on Mon.

We use pivotal point of $210 as base.
Path 1 : Open below 210, and drop to $200 area.

Path 2 : Open above $210 and go to $216, assume no strength to reach down channel. Thus will retrace back to $210 or even $200 area.

If open below 210 and down, I will short GS.
If open above 210 and up I will wait to touch channel top, then short GS.

Thus I am overall bearish on GS, based on my analysis.

Daily with Candles
===================


Daily with Box & Channel
=======================


Daily with MACD
==============


Daily with Vol
==============


Daily with MA20,50,200
=======================


15min with MACD
=============

19-12-07 : a messy day

Exam date mess up, preparation for LAN mess up.

18-12-07 - Finally the seminar is over

2nd day moves fast, mainly because I am late for the seminar due to jam.

Its about fundamentals. I am not really interested.

The position sizing and trade management is ok. I learnt a bit from there.

Overall i dont really learn much from the seminar.

Summary of findings at the seminar
==================================
(1) stop loss & limit order adjustments when trade move in our favour.
(2) Day trade S&P500 using 3min chart, with RSI, Stoch slow(10,10) and Bollinger
band as entry signals.
(3) How to use City Index's trading platform.
(4) Every guaranteed stop loss = $4 for trading S&P500 and DJ indices.

Dhillon focus a lot on money management, psychology, trade management. He focus little on chart signals, indicators etc.

His focus is justified as most ppl dont know how to do money management.

What I plan to do from here
=============================
Day trade S&P500 and DJ using day, 15min and 3min charts for 1mth.
record down the winning % out of first 20 trades (1 mth = 20 trading days)

Goal = 75% success rate (ie. 15 out of 20 trades win).
Risk : Reward = 1:1 ($100 profit, $100 cut loss for every trade)

Fund $1000 into City Index, and trade S&P500/DJ for 6mths.
If 75% success, monthly profit = $1500 (wins) - $500 (loss) = $1000 net profit
(no commission, no other charges).

6 mths * 1000 = $6000 net profit.

17-12-07 : BSC put trade tonite

MACD 15min just cross 0 down. bearish.
target = 184 (6)
cut = 193 (3)
r:r = 1:2

15min
====

17-12-07 : Long on RIMM by Dhillon

Dhillon is bullish on RIMM at 95-103 range. Accumulation is done in that range.

We can enter a call tonite at around 105-106 range. Target = 120. cut @ 99. risk:reward = 1:2.3.

I am personally not bullish on RIMM, mainly due to hot wet blanket formed(MA20,50 on top of price). 5min shows a support at 105. and MACD is still above 0. Thus its not totally bearish.


daily
====


15min
====

17-12-07: Life is not always smooth

Constant arguement with gf always leave me in bad mood, depressed, discouraged.

The wife element in a man's life is break or made.

I have no idea what is a perfect wife. But i do know, one that quarrels everyday is not a good one.

Anyway, i'm not an easy person to get along with. I am focus, mean and cold.

These are good qualities for a trader. But may not be for a good husband. Perhaps i'm not meant to marry so early after all.

17-12-07: BSC is bearish below 100

BSC drops below $100, again.
So is it a discount for call, or a put ?

90 is support,100 is resistance. Both ways room are too little. wait.

daily
====

17-12-07 : MA needs ERF#1

MA is uptrend, within up channel. But the price to enter now is not safe. It may retrace to the btm of up trend anytime. So wait for ERF#1.

daily
====


15min
=====

16-12-07 : Finally the seminar started !

The long awaited CFD seminar by Dhillon finally kicked off today in Cititel KL.

Well, most of the stuff i already know, as expected. But still, its nice to meet ppl. The seminar is sponsored anyway. Thanks to Eric, Wong, Ah Sim, Ah Qin, En Asman, Damien, Soo Yean, Daliam.

To summarize what i have learnt :
(1) MA50,200 should be the support / resistance (S/R). Not the trendline. Dont use trendline.

(2) Enter the trade anytime the price target is met. Timing is not important, nor
the formation of candle patterns on that day.

(3) Oil counters like SLB, OXM, SII are good for position trading. Less volatile. More predictable.

(4) Dhillon's main indicators are RSI, Slow stoch(10,10) and MACD (2 line + hist)(parameters are default) for position trade.

(5) For day trade of S&P500, he uses Bollinger on 3min chart + RSI.

These are the samples of the trade he will enter for position :

17-12-07: GS is heading down. $200 is next support

GS after diamond breakdown, will go to $200.

Breakdown is @ $215. Target = $200, Thus the predictive value of this diamond = $15.

daily
=====


15min
=====

17-12-07 : GOOG is due for up or down?

Last rally last till 740. We expected the same thing to happen. But it lasted till 720 only. Could anyone have seen the resistance at 720 coming? I dont think many ppl will. But the candles warning signs are there.

daily chart
===========
(1) Day0 a doji appears at 720 level. Bearish. Uncertainty occurs.
(2) Day1 is a shooting star. Bearish.
(3) Day2 day is Bearish engulfing
(4) Day3 sees gap up, but fall again below 700 this time.
4 days of bearish price action for day chart is enough to indicate
15min chart
===========
(1) 4 days of bearishness turns into a broadening bottom in 15mn chart.
(2) MACD is below 0 now.

Conclusion : I believe will retrace till 680 level.

daily
====


15min
=====

14-12-07 : Takes on various counters

RIMM
====
The support of $100 cant be broken.
It keeps climbing back to $100 after it breaks $100 down.
May form a double bottom.

GOOG
===
drops yesterday after broke up channel 3 days ago. Been down for 2 days, but price broke 15min down channel up again. So hold on.

GS
===
Broke diamond down. May find support at $200.

MA
===
Still uptrend.

AAPL
===
broke up channel. cut.

BIDU
===
in channel, but may go up tonite due to 15min MACD cross 0 up.

BSC
===
Drops below $100 again. MACD is rising. Hold.

Summary
=======
If bullish tonite : BIDU, AAPL and MA are good calls.

If bearish tonite : GOOG, GS are good puts.

13-12-07 : A quiet morning in BB McD as S&P500 reached double top in 10 yrs chart

Morning in McD Bukit Bintang is quiet. not many ppl at the upstairs. The Old Aunty is still there. I guess she comes everyday. Does she work? Why she needs to wake up so early? does she need to work ? Its a wonder.

I ordered small coffee and hash brown. Its $5. If i order Bubur McD with large coffee and hash brown, its $6.50. I felt cheated. I made a wrong decision. I dont have bubur to eat. So sad.

S&P500 10yr chart reveals a double top. So has US DJ and S&P peaked? Have the heavy weighted stocks peaked?

S&P 500 10 yr chart
===================

13-12-07 : RIMM still bearish

Last nite RIMM is bearish. RIMM is our put trade. However, $100 stil holds in the end. THus I change the target to put to below $98.

Even though $100 holds, but the box is now 98-100, no longer 100-106. I see this as potential weakness to drop further. Thus call is not advisable.

For put, our original plan is to buy the Jan08 $100 put @ $11. Now the put is $10. It dropped $1. The closing on Tues is $98. The closing last nite is $100. Thus price essentially up $2, and put option drops $1. Delta of 0.50. Fair enough.

Can we interpret this small price movement as Break 100 down to 98, back to 100, then down again to $90?? Is this a small small rebound?

If I am right, then tonite we will see RIMM down further.

15min chart
==========

13-12-07 : All trades tak jadi

Last nite is a non trending night, with most of my stocks not active.

Thus at 12am when seeing nothing has moved much, I quit thinking of something to buy.

Its just not a night to trade. So i slept.

12-12-07 : Trade setup summary

Tonite we are looking at 3 possible trade setups :

(1) RIMM - Put
(2) BSC - Call
(3) BIDU - Put

If market is bearish, we go for RIMM put.
If market is bullish, we go for BSC call.

We decide at 12am. TICK and TRIN must support our market condition.

All the best to all option traders tonite. Adieus !

12-12-07 : BIDU failed to break above 400

Break above 400 has been the aim for last few days, and it consistently failed. Last nite it broke 400 and went on to 410, only to find itself dropping below 380 box btm support. MACD cross 0 down sharply. The selling force is strong at 400 level. I think its bearish for now. May go for a put tonite if cont to be bearish. May drop to 350.

Trade setup
----------
Option : Jan08 $370 Put
Price : $25.00
Cut : $23.00
Profit : $29.00
Duration : 3 days
Risk:Reward : 1:2

Daily
====


15min
====

12-12-07 : BSC is due to go higher?

Break 100, retrace back to 100. Now ready to go higher?

We will see. Get ready for a call.

Trade setup
============
option : Jan08 $100 Call
Price : $6.60
Cut : $5.60
Profit : $8.60
Risk:Reward : 1:2
Duration : 5 days

Daily
=====


15min
=====

12-12-07 : MA may fall. sell call now.

MA is still within up channel. For the conservative, can still hold on the call.

But for me, i take the MACD falling below 0 in 15min chart as warning sign to flee. Thus I flee first. Talk later.

While i will sell my call, i will not buy put, since its still within up channel.


daily
====


15min
====

12-12-07 : AAPL - Retracement or reversal?

Our AAPL is now at the btm of up channel. In fact, it has broken the channel just a bit. 15min chart reveals the MACD is -4, a bit oversold.
So is it a reversal down? or is it a retracement?

We will see tonite. If it fall out of channel completely (15min chart cdl), then we sell our call. If not, hold on to the call.

daily
====



15min
=====

12-12-07 : RIMM is a put !

RIMM has broken 100 down in daily chart. For 15min chart, MACD cross below 0, and thus its time to put.


Trade setup
------------
Option : Jan08 $100 Put
Price : $11
Cut : $9
Profit : $13
Duration : 3 days

daily
=====



15min
======

12-12-07 : GS diamond breakout - downside

Its surprising to me the diamond breakout to the downside.

But it happened. So we re-act accordingly. I will not get a put coz 210, and 200 are
both supports. Its too near 210 support now.

For calls, I would have cut at 224, as its a 15min strong support. which was broken up at early hrs, and broken down again later. Price cant go pass the diamond defined upper wall.

What would I do now ? I will wait for a rebound from $210 or 200 level. $200 will be safer. Will leave it untouch for now. Market is very choppy and non trending.

daily
=====


15min
====